A record breaking super El Nino is unfolding in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern is on track to become the strongest in recorded history. According to a recent report from CBC News, sea surface temperatures in the key monitoring region are now three degrees above average. This breaks a daily record set in 2015.

The Science Behind the Heat

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives a 75 percent chance this becomes a long term historic event. Forecast models project this El Nino peaks in December. We have only seen four other super El Nino events on record. The historic event of 1877 caused massive global drought and crop failure.

This current system brings far reaching impacts around the globe. It increases extreme conditions like heat waves, drought, and wildfires across Australia, Central America, and Canada.

A Quiet Hurricane Season for the Maritimes

This weather pattern directly impacts you here in Saint John and across Atlantic Canada. First, it keeps a tight lid on the Atlantic hurricane season. We experienced an incredibly quiet season with no hurricanes through mid September. This marks the first time this has happened in the satellite era.

Warm temperatures in the Pacific cause strong upper level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. These winds limit the strength and development of brewing storms. The Gulf of Mexico and the waters off the southeast coast of the United States remain the only areas to watch. Ocean temperatures are very warm there, and tropical storms still develop in those regions.

What to Expect This Winter in Saint John

As the system warms into December, it heavily influences our upcoming winter season. During a typical El Nino event, Western Canada is warmer and drier than average. Eastern Canada usually sees a mix of colder or warmer conditions with no strong historical signal.

However, a super El Nino dramatically increases the chances of a warmer than average winter for New Brunswick. The super El Nino winters of 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998, and 2015 to 2016 were all far warmer than average across Atlantic Canada. The historic 1877 event brought what meteorologists call the year without a winter in North America.

You still need your shovel and winter boots. A warmer than average winter still brings cold and snowy weather through December, January, February, and March. Multiple global factors influence the jet stream and the polar vortex, but the overarching trend points toward a milder season for Saint John.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a super El Nino?

A super El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise significantly above the long term average. The current system is three degrees above average.

How does El Nino affect hurricanes in Atlantic Canada?

It creates strong upper level winds across the Atlantic. These winds tear apart developing storms and lead to a quieter hurricane season for the Maritimes.

Will Saint John get snow this winter?

Yes. While the overall average temperature trends warmer, Saint John still receives cold snaps and snowstorms throughout the winter months.