If you live in New Brunswick, you likely remember the intense protests over shale gas a decade ago. Now, those debates are returning to the forefront. A couple hundred protesters recently gathered outside the legislature to voice their opposition to a familiar issue. Premier Susan Holt walked past signs demanding clean air and water to deliver her third throne speech. The crowd targeted a proposed artificial intelligence data centre in Saint John, a natural gas power plant in Tantramar, and the government’s decision to review the decade old fracking moratorium.

According to a recent report by CBC News, Holt is asking New Brunswickers to reconsider their stance on hydraulic fracturing.

The Political Shift

Just three years ago, Holt called shale gas yesterday’s energy solution. She stated clearly that New Brunswickers did not want to take on the risk of hydraulic fracturing. Today, her perspective looks different. Holt points to the arrival of a second Donald Trump term in the United States and slowing provincial revenues as primary reasons for the review.

“We are looking at all the options that can bring economic stability and independence to our province,” Holt said.

The province faces a projected deficit of nearly $1.7 billion this fiscal year. Holt questions how the government can manage deficits in the health care system and overall budget when current revenues fall short of future expenses.

The Economic Argument

Both the proposed Saint John data centre and the Tantramar power plant require natural gas. Trade conflicts with the U.S. make developing local energy sources highly appealing. Economist Richard Saillant notes that a local supply spurs economic growth and provides consumers with a more cost competitive source of energy.

However, Saillant warns against viewing the industry as a quick fix for the structural deficit.

“It’s great to try to pursue growth, but it’s irresponsible from a fiscal management standpoint to count your chicken before your roost,” Saillant said.

Industry Appeal and Political Opposition

Todd McDonald, president of energy trading firm Energy Atlantica, argues the economic case for New Brunswick shale gas is stronger now than it was 12 years ago. Increased demand drives up prices.

“Economically, it’s a very, very attractive play, probably the most attractive play in all of North America because the prices are very high,” McDonald said.

Despite the economic pull, political opposition remains fierce. Green Party Leader David Coon won his seat in 2014 partly due to public anger over shale gas exploration. He believes the dangers posed by the industry and climate change are even clearer today.

“I don’t know what more evidence needs to be there for the premier to say, no, we can’t continue to burn even more fossil fuels,” Coon said.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is New Brunswick reviewing the fracking moratorium?

Premier Susan Holt cites slowing provincial revenues, a projected $1.7 billion deficit, and potential trade tensions with the U.S. as reasons to explore local energy independence.

When was the original fracking moratorium put in place?

The provincial government introduced the moratorium in 2014 after former premier David Alward lost the election on a pro fracking platform.

What are the economic arguments for lifting the ban?

Industry analysts say high natural gas prices and European demand make New Brunswick’s deposits highly attractive. Local supply also supports new projects like the proposed Saint John data centre.

When will the government make a decision?

The provincial government is reviewing the moratorium until January 2027, at which point it will decide whether to lift it.