A Shift in Provincial Demographics

Just over a decade after Moncton claimed the top spot, Saint John faces another demographic shift. According to a recent report from CBC News, Fredericton is closing the population gap and pushing Saint John into third place.

The Numbers Behind the Change

Here is what the data shows. In 2023, New Brunswick redrew municipal boundaries. Moncton added 650 residents. Fredericton added about 4,500. Saint John added zero.

The provincial government estimates Saint John holds a slim lead in 2024. The city sits at 78,165 residents compared to Fredericton at 77,736. That is a difference of just 429 people.

Sebastien Lavoie is a senior analyst at Statistics Canada. He notes that Saint John loses up to 200 people annually to migration within the province. Meanwhile, Fredericton gains between 500 and 1,000 residents each year. Lavoie states the 2026 census will confirm Fredericton in second place.

City Leaders React

Saint John Mayor Donna Reardon remains unbothered by the shift. She told CBC News that the change does not keep her up at night.

Reardon views rapid expansion as a two sided sword. She believes growing too quickly leaves a city unprepared and poorly designed for new demands. She also acknowledges the unique character of Saint John. The city hosts the majority of heavy industry in New Brunswick. Reardon admits this industrial nature does not appeal to everyone.

Fredericton Mayor Steve Hicks welcomes the population boost. He points to increased tax revenue and successful long term planning. Hicks believes the growth proves people want to live in the capital city. He credits the downtown core, nature trails, universities and local businesses as major draws.

Focusing on Quality of Life

Saint John leaders plan to focus on quality of life to attract new residents. Reardon wants to target vacant properties. The city recorded more than 260 vacant lots in 2016. Developing or taxing these lands will generate revenue for community investments.

The mayor wants to improve green spaces, beaches and family recreation. These upgrades will give you and your family more reasons to choose Saint John.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Saint John losing its spot as the second largest city?

Saint John experiences slower population growth compared to Fredericton. The 2023 municipal amalgamations added thousands of residents to Fredericton while Saint John added none.

What is the current population difference between the two cities?

Provincial estimates for 2024 show Saint John with 78,165 residents and Fredericton with 77,736. This leaves a gap of only 429 people.

How is Saint John responding to this demographic shift?

Mayor Donna Reardon focuses on improving the quality of life. The city plans to develop or tax vacant properties to fund upgrades to green spaces, beaches and family recreation.