American tariff threats are raising alarms for New Brunswick businesses that rely on cross border trade. U.S. President Donald Trump plans to impose new 50 percent tariffs on several Canadian goods starting August 19 if the two countries fail to reach an agreement. While the provincial government downplays the overall economic hit, experts warn local communities will bear the brunt of the damage.

According to a report from Global News, the provincial Finance and Treasury Board Department estimates these tariffs impact $112.1 million in exports. This figure represents just 0.8 percent of total exports bound for the U.S. in 2025.

The Products Taking the Hit

Wood products like plywood and finished wood face the heaviest burdens. Paper, food and alcohol producers also stand in the crosshairs. The highest value good targeted by these tariffs is corrugated paper and paperboard cartons. These boxes account for $44.2 million of the affected export value.

Local Communities Face the Real Danger

The aggregate numbers look small, but the local reality tells a different story. If you live in a forestry town, you understand how quickly a single closure changes the local landscape. Herb Emery is the Vaughan Chair in Regional Economics at the University of New Brunswick. He points out that the major concern is exactly where this economic impact lands.

“These tariffs in aggregate may not harm the overall economy, it would appear, but they are going to do significant damage to local communities,” Emery said.

Many affected businesses lack the resources to absorb major market changes. Emery notes these companies tend to be small and labor intensive with aging founders. He warns New Brunswick will start to look a lot more like Maine. Maine lost many labor intensive enterprises 30 years ago during the North American Free Trade Agreement transition.

Emery points to communities that lost major employers in the past to show the far reaching consequences. “When you look at a place like Dalhousie, Campbellton, which lost its paper mill in the 2000s, you basically see a community that got gutted and has been shrinking and aging,” he said.

Small Businesses Struggle to Plan

The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs makes it incredibly difficult for business owners to plan investments, hire staff and expand operations. Frédéric Gionet is the Atlantic director of legislative affairs for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. He emphasizes the vital role these companies play in your daily life.

“Small businesses are the backbone of small economies. They hire, they have an impact, they have a social impact in every community,” Gionet said.

Opportunities NB is currently working with companies to help them respond to the tariffs. They offer support for productivity, market diversification and export development. However, many businesses are still waiting for meaningful progress on interprovincial trade to help offset international losses. Gionet notes that 69 percent of their members report no meaningful change in doing business across Canada over the past year, while 16 percent say the process has become more difficult.

Frequently Asked Questions

When do the new U.S. tariffs take effect?

The proposed 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods take effect on August 19 unless the United States and Canada reach a new trade agreement.

Which New Brunswick products face the biggest impact?

Wood products, including plywood and finished wood, are among the most affected. Cartons and boxes made of corrugated paper account for the highest dollar value. Food and alcohol producers also face significant impacts.

How much of New Brunswick’s export market is targeted?

The provincial government estimates the tariffs impact $112.1 million in exports. This represents 0.8 percent of the province’s total U.S. bound exports for 2025.