If you work in New Brunswick’s forestry sector or manufacturing base, you know the sting of recent trade disputes. As American voters head to the polls for the midterm elections, the results bring significant consequences for your bottom line. U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods play a massive role in the tight Senate race in neighbouring Maine. However, trade experts warn relief is unlikely for Canadians regardless of who wins.

The Deep Trade Ties Between Maine and New Brunswick

Maine relies heavily on Canadian trade. The state imports $4.1 billion in goods from Canada each year. This makes Canada the largest trading partner for Maine. The imports include $2 billion in heating oil, more than half a billion dollars from the forestry industry, and $263 million in electricity directly from New Brunswick.

According to a report by CTV News, U.S. tariffs put immense pressure on New Brunswick. The levies strain the forestry sector, hurt the manufacturing base, and cut into the profits of local breweries. Across the border, Maine experiences similar pain. Forest product exports to Canada dropped by 20 percent, causing significant job losses.

A Senate Race Defined by Tariffs

The economic fallout creates a major hurdle for incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins. She faces a tough challenge from Democratic candidate Troy Jackson. Polling indicates Maine voters are unhappy with policies that push up energy prices and cause Canadian tourism to plummet.

Amy Fried, a former political science chair at the University of Maine, notes the unique nature of this election cycle. “People in Maine are kind of appalled by what’s happened,” Fried said. She added that Canada plays a central role in this election in a way she has not seen in decades.

Collins pitches herself as an independent willing to break with her party. During a recent debate, she highlighted her success in lobbying the White House to remove Canadian concrete, pulp, and road salt from the tariff list. Jackson quickly fired back with a viral response, stating, “We can’t eat road salt.”

New Tariffs and Trade Deal Hopes

Just weeks before the election, the U.S. lifted tariffs on nine categories of Canadian goods crucial to Maine’s agricultural industries. However, the same executive order imposed new levies on dozens of other categories. These new targets include cocoa powder, paints, shampoos, vinyl flooring, and carpets.

Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, sees little upside for Canada. “I don’t think that any midterm outcome is a guaranteed win for Canada. I think we could still get screwed either way,” Turnbull said.

Despite the ongoing trade war, recent developments offer a glimmer of hope. U.S. President Donald Trump recently claimed the United States and Canada are very close to reaching a new trade deal. Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed on social media that he had a good conversation with the U.S. president regarding the future of trade.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much does Maine import from Canada?

Maine imports $4.1 billion in goods from Canada every year. This includes $263 million in electricity from New Brunswick.

How do U.S. tariffs affect New Brunswick?

The tariffs strain New Brunswick’s forestry sector, damage the manufacturing base, and reduce profits for local breweries.

Did the U.S. remove any tariffs on Canadian goods?

Yes. The U.S. recently removed tariffs on nine categories of Canadian goods, including concrete, pulp, and road salt. However, the government simultaneously added new tariffs on items like paint and shampoo.

Are Canada and the U.S. close to a new trade deal?

Recent statements from both U.S. and Canadian leadership indicate the two countries are close to reaching a new trade agreement.